AMD's Stake

As we've alluded to in the title, the OLPC is about charity, prosperity, and capitalism. The software is the charity, the end results of the program are the prosperity, and the companies backing the OLPC like AMD are the capitalism. AMD has made it clear in press and business reports how it intends to leverage the XO-1 and its own technologies for business purposes, so we'd like to touch on exactly what AMD's stake is in everything.

There are two real extremes in turning a profit in the computer chip industry. One is to sell a small number of high profit chips; this is the server industry, where AMD has not had the best of luck lately (though Opteron did pretty well back in Intel's NetBurst days). The other is to sell a large number of low profit chips, an area that is traditionally represented by AMD, though at times they have been victim to these low profits being a little too low.

While not in any way giving up on the high-end, AMD is also looking to capitalize on expanding their stake in the low-end, looking for new markets in that area instead of taking Intel on directly. The focal point of that desire is the AMD 50x15 program, an initiative to bring internet access to 50% of the world's population by 2015. Participating in the OLPC program is one such way to reach that goal, but the OLPC program will never ship enough laptops on its own to reach that goal, never mind that as a non-profit program AMD will not be making any money on the XO-1.

However, much of the first 50% is composed of developing societies that have rapidly growing economies, improving electricity coverage, and an expanding middle class. In other words, there are a lot of people finally entering financial situations where they have the kind of income to afford luxury goods like computers. Over the past two years, and again reiterated in their Q2'07 financial report and even by Hector Ruiz himself on CNBC, AMD has stated their intentions to claim a large piece of the computer market that is forming in these societies as one of their profitable enterprises.

Getting into these markets requires computers priced similar to the XO-1, which is why AMD believes they have an advantage over Intel in this pursuit. The XO-1 is a roadmap for how to build such a computer today, and AMD intends to follow it after their first effort, the Personal Internet Communicator, failed to take off. Thanks to the XO-1 AMD can already build a computer to meet their immediate goals, and we'd imagine they're looking forward to Quanta's XO-1 variant going on sale.

AMD's story doesn't end there, as reaching their 2015 goal will also require new technology. As far as the $100 price target is concerned, the holy grail is a complete x86 system-on-chip as a SoC minimizes the number of parts that need to be manufactured and the electronics needed to connect them. Their current Geode processor is close to this in design, but is heavily lacking in performance due to its decade-old design. AMD has decided not to try to further upgrade the Geode and instead build a new SoC x86 processor, culminating in Fusion.

As we saw last week in AMD's Analyst Day presentation, AMD announced Bobcat, their ultra-low-power ultra-simple x86 processor intended for mobile devices. When put in a Fusion design with a proper low-power graphics core and Northbridge, a Fusion Bobcat will be capable of power usage similar to the current Geode, but with far better performance in all areas. This is critical for entering the mass market in developing nations, as users will want to use more mainstream software than the Geode can handle.

Keep in mind, none of this is to vilify AMD. Capitalism is a very powerful force to drive and spread progress. AMD's 50x15 goal is extremely lofty and not everything is in their hands, but from what we've seen with their technology they're going to be able to create the chips they need to reach their goal. This ultimately results in many students and children benefiting today from the XO-1, many more people tomorrow from Fusion Bobcat, and then yet again more in the future when Fusion Bobcat finds its way into the successor to the XO-1. It's only a question of whether or not AMD can make the kinds of profit they're shooting for from this project that remains to be seen.

Software The Bigger Picture
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  • thesafetyisoff - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    A few years back there was a scorpion epidemic in a town in South America. The government hit upon the brilliant idea of importing hundreds of chickens, which prey on scorpions, to take care of the pests. One month later there were still plenty of scorpions stinging people, because the villagers had eaten all of the chickens.

    Providing laptops to people who don't have electricity, can't read, and have no interest in education is a complete waste of money. Six months after this program is launched most of them will be broken, stolen, or sold. And the ones that are left will probably be under-utilized.
  • Ryan Smith - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    I think you(and everyone else who has made similar posts) make a good point, but are also in the process missing part of the point of OLPC in the first place.

    It is true that a lot of effort has been made to design the thing for use in extremely rugged/rural/poor conditions, but the fact of the matter is that's not where the XO-1 is going to end up at the beginning. Most of the nations planning on ordering the laptops are all nations in later states of developing, as opposed to being entirely undeveloped. These people have access to the basics such as food and medical care, and a lesser developed power and communication grid(e.g. you have power at school, but maybe not at home). In these situations there's no needs problem to solve, so the only real issue is of education: will the laptops provide the educational benefit the OLPC organization desires?

    By the time the organization is distributing the laptops to the poorest nations and poorest children, we should have an answer to that question, which will make going forward a lot easier.
  • Sunrise089 - Thursday, August 9, 2007 - link

    Ok - exactly. The laptop isn't going into the bush or the desert - it's going to places that can't afford $500, but maybe can afford $175. The problem is THE #^%$#& DESIGN OF THE LAPTOP IS BASED AROUND IT GOING SOMEWHERE IT'S NEVER GOING TO GO!

    Just looking at this thing, it's terribly obvious that some altruistic but naive designer pictured village children in sub-Saharan Africa or SE Asia using this, and then totally missed the point that the internet connectivity and power access just wouldn't exist.

    Then people got a clue, and realized that a cheap laptop would work great in Eastern Europe, or heck, even sub-middle-class America. The problem is those markets need power and storage. They don't need wifi webs or waterproof casings.

    I would ask one question to the project if I were given the chance - how does this ridiculous laptop actually serve the needs of the people who will actually be able to make use of it better than a used $175 laptop? The answer is it simply doesn't.
  • headbox - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    These are people that can't even feed themselves. A laptop will be as useful as a space suit. In Zimbabwe they kicked out all the white farmers to give to the "rightful owners" (because racial diversity is only expected when it means white countries) and the end result was mass starvation because they didn't know basic farming. Do we really expect people living in the stone age to make the leap to the modern era? It took thousands of years of social and technological advancements to get to where we are today... and now we expect an illiterate 3rd worlder to watch an animation on a laptop to bring them up to speed? LOL!
  • Lemonjellow - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    quote:

    History - animated battles and speeches by participants ... etc. All of these will hold a child attention much better than a book.


    Yes, because animated battles and speeches by the people in those battles can teach children about the effect of the Anopheles Mosquito, steam locomotion, or industrialization on global imperialism and/or the effects of capitalism on the developing worlds in which these children live!

    Knowing about a battle means nothing if not taken in the context of it's cause, impacts, and there-for, what-for ,why-for, who-for, how-for, and all-fours (oh, wait no that last one is part of the porn feature)...

    While a striped down not-quite-laptop is handy it will never take the place of a good teacher and a well written book, but it is better than the alternative......
    of nothing at all...

  • acronos - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    Trying to take notes on a standard laptop is foolish (not quite so bad on a tablet pc.) The advantage of laptops in the classroom is to complement or even replace books. A truly good teacher is rare. However, software written and developed by a truly good teacher and development team scaled across thousands of schools can make a fairly positive difference. Teachers could choose competing software, similar to the way they choose books now, that complement their teaching style. Very few subjects would not benefit from this. Language - practice pronunciation. math - some of the best ways to learn early math already exist in the form of video games, science - see discovery channel, History - animated battles and speeches by participants ... etc. All of these will hold a child attention much better than a book. In addition, teaching how to truly use google could totally change society.
  • slashbinslashbash - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    "the unit can safely be hooked up to any number of power sources, including solar or peddles."

    peddle = to travel around selling wares
    pedal = a crankshaft system designed to be operated by the feet
  • saechaka - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    i thought i read that using the kids were using these laptops to view porn. i guess it's good we are giving them a way to see them naked ladies or guys.

    anyways, my point is that i don't think having a laptop will have a big an impact as having books and good teachers. i'd rather see the money on these laptops being spent on teachers and books
  • Roy2001 - Thursday, August 9, 2007 - link

    I agree with you. Good teachers are more important.
  • Verdant - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    As someone who has tried to use a laptop in a classroom, I find the usefulness of each student having one minimal. Input for most subjects is not natural at all with a keyboard (want to sketch a diagram or anything other than basic text and bullets? - takes more effort than doing so by hand)

    Not to say that OLPC is not a valid project, just that people need to be a bit more aware of the fact that it will not perform miracles, and I don't think they are that valuable in a lecture situation.

    The tablet pc is a good step, but the software available is limited, and such systems are clearly not fiscally feasible for something like OLPC.

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